can't climb this ladder

The Ladder of Inference that is.

I see other people do this all of the time in simple straight forward ways. I had vainly hoped that being aware of this and being somewhat logical might, more often then not, save me from a trip on this ladder.

I was wrong.

Years of real data colored by my beliefs allowed me to perceive a conclusion that will not come to pass.

Now in this area I am short of data, those beliefs are compromised and I cannot reach a conclusion.

I do have enough data to reach a conclusion about change: energy, creativity, time and dedication need to go into a new project.

Something with a future.